Texas Housing Market Predictions 2025

Texas. The Lone Star State. The home of cowboys, big cities and barbecue. It seems like lots of folks are buying homes in Texas—and staying there. In fact, more people moved within Texas in 2023 than inside any other state.¹

Are you fixin’ to mosey on down to Texas? If so, you’re probably wondering about the Texas housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We wrangled up the latest news on the Texas housing market to give you a heads up on what to expect in the Lone Star State.

Now, the best way to learn about the housing market in Texas is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Texas (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted^® program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Y’all ready? Let’s go!

How’s the Housing Market in Texas?

Inventory (available homes for sale) went up 30% in Texas in the last year, which means you’ll have more options if you’re wanting to buy a house. On average, homes stayed on the market for 56 days in the third quarter of 2024 (seven more days than in Q3 of 2023). Total home inventory reached 4.8 months of supply in Q3 of 2024, compared to 3.6 in Q3 of 2023. A growth in inventory like that tends to stabilize price growth, which may be why Texas home prices remained flat from Q3 of 2023 to Q3 of 2024.² The closer the market gets to six months of supply, the better news it becomes for buyers. That’s because, historically, six months of supply is associated with much calmer home price growth.³

Here’s a look at Texas housing market numbers in Q3 of 2023 compared to Q3 of 2024:

Texas Housing Market	Q3 2023	Q3 2024	Change
Median Price*	$340,000	$340,000	0%
Inventory (Active Listings)	99,132	129,268	+30.4%
Closed Sales	87,746	85,816	-2.2%
Median Time to Sale**	83 days	90 days4	+7 Days
Average U.S. Mortgage Rate*** (15-Year Fixed)	6.72%	5.16%5	-1.56 Percentage Points

_{*Median sale price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.}

_{**Median time to sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less.}

_{***Data is from September 28, 2023, and September 26, 2024.}

How’s the Texas housing market in major cities?

Looking at Texas as a whole might not tell the entire story about prices in local housing markets. So, let’s zoom in on some individual places. Here’s a look at median home prices in four of Texas’ biggest cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin.

	Houston	San Antonio	Dallas-Fort Worth	Austin
Median Price (Q3 2024)	$340,000	$311,000	$396,870	$437,925
Percent Change Since 2023	+1.5%	-1.9%	-0.8%	-3.8%6

How Does Texas Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now let’s see how Texas’ housing market compares to markets in other parts of the country.

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The median home price in the U.S. was $418,700 in Q3 of 2024—nearly $79,000 higher than the median price in Texas. The national median price went up 3.1% compared to the year before.⁷

Only about 13% of markets saw declines in home prices in Q3 of 2024. On the flip side, a few metros with the biggest price increases include Racine, Wisconsin (+13.7%), Youngstown, Ohio (+13.1%), and Syracuse, New York (+13.0%).⁸

Yes, prices are kind of all over the map. But generally, prices have gone up slightly all over the country.

Here’s how home prices increased by region from Q3 of 2023 to Q3 of 2024:

• South: +0.8%
• Midwest: +4.3%
• Northeast: +7.8%
• West: +1.8%⁹

Compared to those numbers, Texas’ zero percent growth in home prices seems similar to what the South experienced as a whole.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2025

We’ve taken a look at the numbers, so let’s shift into seeing what some real estate gurus are predicting about the 2025 Texas housing market.

1. Lower interest rates will encourage home sales.

Sure, mortgage rates are nowhere near the record lows we saw in 2021. But they’ve calmed down some from the huge jumps they made in 2023.¹⁰ If rates remain stable in 2025, that could mean good things for market activity.

According to Jef Conn, chairman of Texas REALTORS^®, “Lower interest rates have made buyers and sellers more comfortable with entering the market.” Since lower rates make home buying more affordable, more buyers are willing to go house hunting and more sellers are willing to put their homes up for sale.¹¹

2. Home prices will remain stable.

Home price growth has relaxed in Texas and has even gone down slightly in 9 of 26 metro areas as of Q3 2024. Currently, the market has about 4.8 months of home inventory. Historically, four to five months of inventory are signs of a balanced market.¹² So, as long as supply continues to increase and gets closer to meeting demand, home prices should remain stable throughout 2025.

3. Homes won’t fly off the market as fast.

If inventory continues to grow, sellers will start to feel an increase in competition and buyers will have more time to make a decision. “We have seen listings taking longer to sell, so homes need to be market-ready and priced well in order to attract an offer,” Conn said. “Buyers generally have more choices and a little more time to make decisions than a few years ago.”¹³

Will the Housing Market Crash in Texas?

Simple answer: No. If you’re waiting for the housing market to crash, you’ll be waiting for a while (like, probably forever). That’s because for housing prices to totally plummet, inventory would have to go way up to exceed demand. And no one expects that to happen anytime soon.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Texas Market?

Here’s the deal: Don’t make a decision to buy or sell right now just based on the housing market. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you really need to make sure you’re financially prepared to buy a house.

That means being debt-free with a fully funded emergency fund worth 3–6 months of expenses—and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment. Ideally, you’d put 20% down to avoid having to pay for private mortgage insurance (PMI). If you’re a first-time home buyer, a 5–10% down payment is okay—but you will have to pay for PMI. Whatever you do, make sure your mortgage payment is no more than 25% of your take-home pay on a 15-year fixed-rate conventional loan. All this helps you avoid being house poor.

Sure, this advice is different than what many industry “experts” will tell you. It’s now considered normal in America to have a tiny down payment (if any) and for lenders to let you borrow more than you can afford. But “normal” in America is broke. So don’t be normal—be weird. After all, if you live like no one else now, later you can live and give like no one else.

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.